FRAMESHOP:FRAMESHOP: 'MACACA' TANKING ALLEN

The results of a newly released SurveyUSA poll show George Allen's lead over Jim Webb virtually eliminated after the 'macaca' incident.

In the new poll, Allen's lead dropped from 19 to 3 percentage points. Webb now trails 45% to Allen's 48%. In survey terms, that means the 'macaca' incident was the equivalent of George Allen climbing into his driving and driving off a cliff.

But the really interesting story is inside the poll itself.

Here is the quote from the article:

Interviewing for this poll began 8/18/06, one week after Allen singled out a Webb campaign worker at an Allen rally. Allen has lost support across all demographic groups, but in particular, among younger voters. He has gone from Plus 23 to Minus 17, a swing of 40 points. In Southeastern VA, Allen has gone from a 2:1 lead to a tie, a 31-point swing.

That is quite a startling change. Most people would guess that younger voters would be turned off by a racist Senator. But it seems fairly plausible that were seeing the impact of YouTube on a segment of the population--since the story itself was centered on a video of Allen published to that site.

But the following quote has the greatest implication for how the rest of the race will be framed:

Those who support Ballot Question 1, defining marriage in Virginia as between one man and one woman, vote for Allen by 39 points. Those who oppose Question 1 vote for Webb by 64 points. The election is in 11 weeks, on 11/7/06.

That's right: Allen's strong base is still solidly anti-equal rights--what the Republicans call being 'against gay marriage.'

So, George Allen gets caught on tape hurling a racist slur, and he will likely come out swinging at gays and lesbians to shore up his base.

We can probably expect Allen to start talking about 'marriage between a man and a woman' sometime in the next week. And how boring and predictable would that be.

If he can no longer pretend to be Strom Thurmond, maybe George Allen can start pretending to be Rick Santorum?

© 2006 Jeffrey Feldman, Frameshop