FRAMESHOP:FRAMESHOP: 3 SYMBOLIC STATES KEY TO ELECTION FINALE

Despite the national polls showing a tip back to a close race, the reality is that national polls are not really an indicator of the outcome of the election at this point.  Instead, the best way to understand the state of the election is to look at the recent trends in three symbolic states:  Mississippi, South Dakota, and Arizona. 

All three of the following states have been 'solid red' for years--for a generation.  But in recent weeks, each of these states has slipped into the 'pink,' meaning they are no longer sure-thing winners for McCain.  What makes them important indicators is not just that McCain is losing ground in each, but that they are each symbolic states:  locations in the electoral college imbued with historic and cultural meaning.

Symbolic State #1: Mississippi
In many ways, the Civil Rights Movement in the South began and was fought the fiercest in Mississippi.  Fair or not, if any state is a symbol of white resistance to political equality it is Mississippi.  That McCain is losing ground in Mississippi late in the race suggests that he so-called "Bradley Effect" (Whites saying they will vote for a black candidate, but then not doing so once they're in the booth) is not going to have much of an impact.  It also shows that the Obama campaign has mobilized enough new voters that his campaign has broken down the racial skewing that Republicans had built into the Southern vote for decades.  It is unlikely that Obama will ultimately win Mississippi, but the fact that he is making headway this late in the race suggests that his campaign has made great strides against one of the major obstacles he was facing: racial prejudice.

Symbolic State #2: South Dakota
The state of South Dakota became infamous over the past few years for trying pass the most draconian anti-Abortion laws in the country.  In addition to being the home of Mount Rushmore, South Dakota has become a center of extreme right-wing Evangelical social conservatism.  In recent weeks, McCain's overwhelming lead has begun to slip.  What this suggests is that McCain's support amongst the deeply committed Evangelical "faith community" is not firm, and that their enthusiasm is nowhere near what it was for other candidates.  If It is unlikely that Obama will ultimately win South Dakota, but the fact that he is making  headway this late in the race suggests that his campaign has made great strides against a major obstacle facing Democrats for years: persuading Evangelical voters that Democrats represent their interests better than Republicans.

Symbolic State #3: Arizona
Everybody knows that John McCain represents Arizona in the Senate and has for years, so it was just a given that he would win Arizona.  In the last few weeks, however, McCain's polling advantage in Arizona has weakened and Obama's chances are looking strong.  Beyond McCain's status as incumbent, three big issues in Arizona dominate voter concerns:  immigration, healthcare, and retirement.  What McCain's vanishing lead suggests is that Obama is making strides by talking about the economy and healthcare, and that he has persuaded more Arizona voters to listen seriously to his proposals on immigration.  It is unlikely that Obama will ultimately win Arizona (although of all three symbolic states, Arizona is the most likely to ultimately swing to Obama), but the fact that he is making headway this late in the race suggests that his campaign has made great strides against a major obstacle facing the Democrats: convincing center-right voters in the Southwest to trust Democrats on the economy and on immigration.

National Polls Mean Nothing, The Symbolic States Mean Everything
Beyond these three states, we are seeing the  Obama campaign make huge inroads into three, symbolic areas:  The South, The Midwest, and The Southwest.   Each of these symbolic reasons were grounds for huge electoral success under George W. Bush, but in this election they are swinging in large part to Obama.  That does not mean that Obama will carry every state in these symbolic areas, but it means that his campaign was able to persuade many voters in solid red areas to consider voting for a Democrat in a Presidential election--for the first time in a long time for some, for the first time ever for others.

These symbolic states and symbolic areas give us a reading beyond the election or one candidate.  They are a window into a broad social change, brought on perhaps by the combination of factors:  the ongoing military struggle in Iraq, the economy, and the environment.   It seems that on these issues, vast numbers of voters in these symbolic areas are changing their mind about the candidate and the party best suited to tackle the country's real problems in the near future.  And that spells good news for Obama. 

So the national polls may tighten between now and Tuesday--McCain may even pull ahead in some of them.  But keep your eye on the symbolic states.   They hold the key to what the outcome of the election will be.

© Jeffrey Feldman, Frameshop